Economists: ‘We’re not going to run out of wheat’ (AgWeek)

Agweek published an article stating that grain and input prices were high even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but the uncertainty it adds will likely keep prices high until at least the summer of 2023, and it may be 2024 until they go to pre-invasion levels, a prominent agricultural economist and trade expert says. Senior research fellows Joseph Glauber and David Laborde spoke at length on a variety of subjects at the April 25 North American Agricultural Journalists annual meeting. Some comments included Glauber, who said, “Here we go again.” He recalled the fall of 2007 and 2008 when spring wheat went even higher, hitting $20 a bushel. Australia had gone through two years of consecutive drought. A large winter wheat harvest in the U.S. and the European Union in 2008 led to a collapse in prices in late 2008. “There are countries that depend a lot on imports from the Black Sea — Ukraine and Russia — that are now trying to source wheat from a variety of different places around the world, new suppliers.” David Laborde said the rate of fertilizer price increases has been surprising but has been increasing over the past year. As policy responses for food security, IFPRI is urging the U.S. to remove biofuel subsidies and mandates, target social safety nets to the neediest, boost funding to WFP and other humanitarian programs, and allow markets to guide producer and consumer decisions. Meanwhile, they advise against 1) imposing sanctions that obstruct food and fertilizer trade, or implementing export restrictions, 2) panic buying or targeting subsidizes to specific crops to “engineer” production outcomes, and 3) canceling environmental initiatives without weighing long-term costs, and against promoting self-sufficiency policy and “autarky strategy,” which means states that are economically independent.